Predicting mortality in metabolic acidosis using a Bedside Stewart analysis (The MORIA study)

Predicting mortality in metabolic acidosis using a Bedside Stewart analysis (The MORIA study)

 

CIA: Professor David Story

Among the range of patients cared for by anaesthetists are those who are high risk of complications and mortality. 

Project summary

Among the range of patients cared for by anaesthetists are those who are high risk of complications and mortality. Some of these patients are critically ill before surgery, while some become critically ill during, or soon after surgery. One sign that patients are becoming or have become critically ill is when their blood becomes acidic. However, many clinicians struggle with the complexity of analysing why patients are acidic and the importance of the causes of the acidity.
 
Building on the work of others, Professor Story and the Critical Care group from the University of Melbourne have developed the Bedside Stewart, a simplified approach to analysing acidity in patients that is designed to help clinicians, particularly anaesthetists, while they are caring for patients.
 
The aim of the MOIRA study is to determine the prognostic value for mortality of the base-excess effect parameters derived from the Bedside Stewart approach to analyse the metabolic component of clinical acid-base changes. The hypothesis is that elements of the Bedside Stewart approach, particularly the base-excess effects of unmeasured and lactate ions, will have prognostic value in a multivariate model for in-hospital mortality for patients with metabolic acidosis at the time of ICU admission.
 
In the this study, the investigators will use data routinely collected from thousands of patients admitted to ICU to examine how well these indirect Bedside Stewart measures of abnormal acids can predict the mortality outcome of patients with high levels of theses acids.
 
The significance of this study is that currently the Bedside Stewart approach has clinical diagnostic utility but would have added value if the elements of the analysis also had important prognostic utility. That is, the Bedside Stewart approach could provide a detailed quantitative diagnostic analysis of a patient’s acid-base status with added important prognostic information.  Knowing this would help us plan care for patients and help inform them and their families about potential risks.

Chief investigators

Professor David Story, Melbourne Medical School, The University of Melbourne.
 

Funding

The project was awarded $A66,358 through the ANZCA research grants program for 2022.   

Last updated 15:18 24.03.2022